- Azerbaijan launched a swift military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, 2023, leading to the fall of the region within hours.
- Despite pleas for help, the roughly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers stationed in the area did not intervene, and Armenia refused to join the conflict, leading to Nagorno-Karabakh’s surrender and disarmament.
- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has offered Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians undefined language rights but no autonomy or special status.
- The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh has significant implications for regional stability, with concerns over the future treatment of the enclave’s Armenian population and fears of ethnic cleansing.
- The situation represents a failure for EU and US-led diplomacy and highlights the shifting power dynamics in the South Caucasus, with Azerbaijan feeling emboldened by its strategic importance as a natural gas supplier to Europe.
- Russia’s influence in the region appears weakened, as evidenced by its peacekeepers’ failure to protect Nagorno-Karabakh and the death of Russian soldiers during the Azerbaijani assault.
- Armenia faces internal unrest and criticism of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government for its handling of the conflict and perceived abandonment of Nagorno-Karabakh.
- The proposed Zangezur Corridor, which would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, poses a potential future flashpoint for conflict.
- Large numbers of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian residents have fled to Armenia, fearing for their safety under Azerbaijani control.
- The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and the broader South Caucasus remains fluid, with significant geopolitical implications for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and regional powers.
This summary has been generated by AI.
Leave a Reply