Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have secured billion-dollar valuations by framing real-world event betting as financial forecasting rather than traditional gambling. While the US-based Kalshi operates under the regulatory oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a financial exchange, the decentralized, crypto-based Polymarket operates offshore, restricting US residents to comply with regulatory mandates. Fueled by massive trading volumes during major political and economic events, both platforms leverage unique legal structures to reshape the global betting landscape.
- Kalshi is legally registered in the US as a Designated Contract Market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
- Polymarket is a decentralized, blockchain-based platform that operates offshore and blocks US users following a 2022 CFTC settlement.
- Instead of utilizing traditional gambling licenses, these platforms structure their trades as binary financial contracts or event derivatives.
- The platforms have experienced massive growth in valuation and user activity, largely driven by high-stakes trading on political elections and economic indicators.
- Proponents and researchers utilize these platforms as real-time, incentive-backed forecasting tools that often prove more accurate than traditional polling.
The Wall Street Journal is an American business and economic-focused international daily newspaper based in New York City. The Journal is published six days a week by Dow Jones & Company, a division of News Corp.
AllSides Media Bias Rating: Center
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Original video here.
This summary has been generated by AI.
smart guy masked gambling with a finance framework hahah
i mean it's pretty impossible for winner to out number the loser in a zero sum product. where do you think the money is coming from ? it's from each other. The only other system that give more winner than loser is product that are positive sum product like investing and network effect market place, where each new investor come into the stock make the prior investor wealthier (at least on paper). Some might complain this is just a stock bubble. Ebay or amazon becomes more valuable the more customer and business listed on there. Sure there might be a few loser business that get out-compete but amazon it self, the winning business and customers out number the losing business. So a more winner over loser eco system.
Soldier gets charged, Trump family gets billions.
Being able to gamble on the fate of humanity is dystopian beyond words.
Was the bell ringing in the background necessary?
Gambling has destroyed many lives, caused some joy, is not good for character building. But along with harm reduction we humans value freedom to harm ourselves.
I'm betting that these prediction markets will end up in front of the Supreme Court.
Pre-internet laws in internet age are outdated. Price you pay for prioritizing innovation over anything else.
My true bet is on the fall/collapse of society.
BAN GAMBLING
Both Polymarket and Kalshi are online gambling companies. Ultimately they are the house and most gamblers will loose.
I thought it was "cow sheet"… not Kalshi. Eitherway these companies should be banned.
Will prediction markets get regulated by the Feds by the end of 2026? Yes. No.
I think the biggest uncertainty is them offering “politics” not sports ,,,the most insider trading is coming from “politics “
Don dr just isnt a “adviser” he also owns a piece of poly
Michael Selig is the fox guarding the hen coop while Trump Jr is pulling the strings in the upper echelons.
Still can’t believe this is legal
Wall Street Journal, on the cutting edge of yesterday's news.
Online gambling earnings need to be reported as income and subject to State excise levies. Keep it legal, but regulated and safe. The problem is that it's now so accessible with a few touches on our phone …
No wonder Vegas is dead. I setting up a Kalshi account right now!
Insider trading should be legal. Read Henry G Manne's case for it.
I'm a Canadian Living in USA. I started investing a week ago. I started with 3k, now I am over $11,991 It's a great start with stock market. Thank you for your great video information.
Because Wall Street says so.
illegal gambling. should be banned.
Its crazy to learn that even betting sites ban people who wins a lot. Just crazy.
wsj makes money this way
Is there a bet available if kalshi gonna be illegal by the end of the year?