Attribution Science Enables Legal Action Against Major Carbon Emitters for Climate Damage

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Attribution science is emerging as a critical tool in climate litigation, allowing researchers to quantify the link between human-induced climate change and specific extreme weather events. By calculating the increased probability and intensity of phenomena such as floods and heatwaves, scientists provide empirical evidence for use in legal proceedings against major polluters. This scientific advancement supports global efforts to seek compensation for climate-related damages, potentially holding fossil fuel companies accountable for their historical emissions and their direct impact on vulnerable communities worldwide.

  • Attribution science identifies the specific role of human-caused emissions in intensifying individual extreme weather events.
  • Legal experts are increasingly using this data to build cases against high-emitting corporations for their contribution to global warming.
  • A landmark case involves a Peruvian farmer seeking damages from a German energy utility due to the threat of glacial flooding in the Andes.
  • Advancements in climate modeling allow scientists to distinguish between natural weather variability and changes driven by greenhouse gases.
  • The field provides a scientific basis for “loss and damage” claims, where affected parties seek financial redress for localized environmental impacts.

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19 COMMENTS

  1. If you are watching this video and not thinking either these people are insane or being payed really well, you are as insane as the people talking about attribution studies as if attribution studies is science!🤣🤣🤣🤣

  2. The world is not getting stormier!
    Globally the ACE index (accumulated cyclone energy) per hurricane 1980-2024 shows no increasing trend. Global Hurricane Landfalls 1970-2021 (updated from Weinkle et al, 2012) shows no trend. Satellite data since 1980 shows a slight downward global trend for total hurricaine numbers with 2021 being a record low year. Research published in Nature found no increase in the destructive power of cyclones in any ocean basin over the last 30 years (Tu, S., Hu, Z., Liang, M. et al., 2024). From the NOAA GFDL website 'Global Warming and Hurricanes, An Overview of Current Research' (dated Feb. 9, 2023). And I quote "We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes." And in November 2024 "it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human-caused increases in greenhouse gases have caused a change in past Atlantic basin hurricane activity that is outside the range of natural variability". Multidecadal variability in Atlantic hurricanes is most probably related to the AMO (Vecchi et al, 2021). NOAA data 1851-2021 shows no trend in number of hurricane landfalls with the record high being 1886. In 2025 for the first time in a decade, not a single hurricane struck the U.S. There is also no trend in the frequency of major hurricanes (Cat 3 +) for the same period, although the trend for the last 20 years is downwards. It makes no difference if you look at the Pacific. The average number of typhoons formed for January to September 1951-2022 has declined from 19 to 18 (data source JMA). The busiest season was way back in 1967 with 31. Nothing has even come close for over 30 years. For example, in the Western North Pacific region of the top 10 "Violent Typhoons" (by sustained wind speed) only 3 have occurred in the last 35 years. We can see that typhoon activity has been trending downwards for over 7 decades.

    There is evidence cited in AR6 (IPCC) that windspeed overland throughout the Northern Hemisphere has been dropping in recent decades. Also the number of intense storms (below 960 mbars) in the Northern Atlantic has fallen sharply since 1990 (Tilinina et al, 2021).

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 report, Chapter 11,"Weather and Climate Extreme Events in Changing Climate" concludes that changes in the frequency and intensity of most severe weather events (with corresponding intense rainfall) have not been detected nor can they be attributed to human caused climate change.

  3. As regards the belief in weather event attribution the IPCC states “Scientists cannot answer directly whether a particular event was caused by climate change, as extremes do occur naturally, and any specific weather and climate event is the result of a complex mix of human and natural factors. Instead, scientists quantify the relative importance of human and natural influences on the magnitude and/or probability of specific extreme weather events.”

  4. It is not possible to attribute whether an individual heatwave, drought or a flood, or any climate event, extreme or otherwise is due to human factors. People are fooled into believing it is, thanks to the magic of attribution science. One cannot prove that changes in the climate are man-made, but in tactical attribution science it is presented as a fact. To provide proof of this one would need to observe another Earth-like planet to which no GHGs (greenhouse gases) are added. This is obviously impossible. It is untestable. It is unverifiable. It is not a fact. It is not Science. It's wishful thinking often expounded for legal or political purposes as WWA’s (World Weather Attribution) chief scientist, Friederike Otto, freely admits, “Unlike every other branch of climate science or science in general, event attribution was actually originally suggested with the courts in mind.”

  5. There has been a 10% decline in natural disasters since 2000 (CRED). When you use data from the World Bank and global insurance, and try to measure the cost to society of climate change, you find the cost is minimal and diminishing. Global weather losses as a percentage of Global GDP sank from 0.25% to below 0.20% between 1990 and 2022.
    Based on data published in the Lancet in 2019, GDP percentage Climate-Related Disaster Losses have declined in all global income categories, with the most noticeable declines in the lower income countries (Watts et al., 2019).
    Normalised disaster losses have decreased since 1990 and human mortality due to extreme weather has decreased by more than 95% since 1920, so you're 50 times less likely to die from a climate-related disaster in a world that's 1°C warmer than 100 years ago (EM-DAT, CRED/UC). Deaths from drought have declined by 99%!

    The first half of 2025 (January to June) saw the fewest number of deaths from climate and weather disasters of any first half year this century. There were 2,244 climate/weather related deaths through to 30th June, 2025 (EM-DAT and AON data). Rough estimates of deaths from climate and weather disasters in the decade of the 1870s stand at 2,500,000 per half year; 250,000 per half year in the 1920s; 25,000 per half year as recently as the 1970s. There were much greater levels of deaths in prior decades from climate and weather events.

    As an example of good news, Climate Change saved 555,103 lives in England and Wales between 2001 and 2020 (ONS, 2022).

  6. Auntie Beeb is spouting propaganda:
    Globally the ACE index (accumulated cyclone energy) per hurricane 1980-2024 shows no increasing trend. Global Hurricane Landfalls 1970-2021 (updated from Weinkle et al, 2012) shows no trend. Satellite data since 1980 shows a slight downward global trend for total hurricaine numbers with 2021 being a record low year. Research published in Nature found no increase in the destructive power of cyclones in any ocean basin over the last 30 years (Tu, S., Hu, Z., Liang, M. et al., 2024). From the NOAA GFDL website 'Global Warming and Hurricanes, An Overview of Current Research' (dated Feb. 9, 2023). And I quote "We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes." And in November 2024 "it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human-caused increases in greenhouse gases have caused a change in past Atlantic basin hurricane activity that is outside the range of natural variability". Multidecadal variability in Atlantic hurricanes is most probably related to the AMO (Vecchi et al, 2021). NOAA data 1851-2021 shows no trend in number of hurricane landfalls with the record high being 1886. In 2025 for the first time in a decade, not a single hurricane struck the U.S. There is also no trend in the frequency of major hurricanes (Cat 3 +) for the same period, although the trend for the last 20 years is downwards. It makes no difference if you look at the Pacific. The average number of typhoons formed for January to September 1951-2022 has declined from 19 to 18 (data source JMA). The busiest season was way back in 1967 with 31. Nothing has even come close for over 30 years. For example, in the Western North Pacific region of the top 10 "Violent Typhoons" (by sustained wind speed) only 3 have occurred in the last 35 years. We can see that typhoon activity has been trending downwards for over 7 decades.

  7. GWIS data shows the globally annual area burnt by wildfire (2002 to 2022) has declined from 450 million ha to 350 million ha. Since the early 2000s, there has been a noticeable decline in the annual extent of land affected by wildfires.

    “Unexpectedly, global burned area declined by 25% over the past 18 years, despite the influence of climate.” That's what the research paper published in Science says. The amount of area burned by wildfires each year has gone down over the last few decades.

    Global annual CO₂ emissions from wildfires, 2003 to 2025, have declined from 7.81 billion tons to 4.33 billion tons. GWIS.

    So let's look specifically at Brazil (hence the Amazon): Brazil wildfire data (GWIS)
    2003-2025:
    CO2 emissions trending downwards (e.g. 1.100Gt 2004, 0.285Gt 2025 – both to week 49 of the year);
    Air pollution (PM2.5) trending downwards (5.62Mt 2004, 1.22Mt);
    2012-2025:
    No. of fires annually trending downwards (e.g. 73,822 2012, 42,072 2025 -43% decline).
    Annual area burnt per fire no trend (approx 500ha);
    Total area burnt Brazil trending downwards (38.59M ha 2012, 22.92M ha 2025 – both to week 49 of the year).
    The 2024 burn in Brazil was due to dry conditions induced by a strong El Niño, which is of course, a natural event, and that drought did not exceed the range of natural hydroclimate variability.

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