China’s export sector has seen a rise, with an unexpected growth of 2.3% in December, primarily in semiconductors and electronics. However, in contrast to the export growth, China’s consumer prices have fallen for the third consecutive month, alongside a drop in factory gate prices. A chief strategist at Amundi Institute, CLA Kuang, discusses the temporary nature of current global supply chain disruptions and predicts a moderate recovery in China’s export growth by 2024. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is highlighted as a critical indicator of China’s economic health, reflecting low consumer confidence and spending. Amidst these conditions, Kuang anticipates continued low inflation and suggests further rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China.
- China’s exports increased by 2.3% in December, surpassing expectations with a boost from semiconductors and electronics.
- Consumer prices in China have been declining for three months, indicating cautious consumer behavior and increased savings.
- Factory gate prices in China also experienced a downturn.
- Supply chain disruptions are seen as temporary, with recovery anticipated towards the end of 2023.
- Moderate export growth recovery is projected for China in 2024.
- The CPI is a key indicator, showing the economic reality in China and suggesting lower consumer confidence and spending.
- Low inflation rates are expected to continue, with a CPI forecast of only 0.2% for 2024.
- The People’s Bank of China may need to implement further rate cuts, with a prediction of a 20 basis point reduction in 2024 and an additional 20 to 30 basis points in 2025.
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